Playing the "What If" Game with the 2010 MLS Season

Disclaimer: This is not set in stone, nor is this in any way an official schedule/time line. These are simply my observations based on the events surrounding similar collective bargaining agreement situations in sports.



Seeing as I am The Black Cloud, it seems only right that I do my best to describe just what will happen should the current collective bargaining agreement between MLS and the MLSPU expire on January 31st, 2010. So here goes...


January 9-13, 2010: MLS Combine

January 16th, 2010: MLS SuperDraft & Preseason Training Camps are allowed to begin

January 31st, 2010: Current Collective Bargaining Agreement expires between MLS and the MLSPU

March 25th, 2010: MLS First Kick between Seattle and Philadelphia


Assuming there is no new CBA agreement on of before January 31st, 2010 one of two things will happen:


1. The MLS Players Union will decide to strike and players will leave preseason training camps on or before January 31st, 2010

2. MLS will lockout the players and clubs preseason training camps will be closed

Once a strike or lockout occurs, players can train and/or workout independently of their clubs, but there can be no organized training involving players and MLS clubs.


So What Happens to the 2010 Season?

If the strike/lockout is resolved quickly, players will still be able to return to training with ample preparation time to allow the season to start on time.

If the strike/lockout extends in to March, the chance of the season openers being delayed increases.

If there is no agreement between MLS and the MLSPU by March 25th, 2010 the season will be suspended, pending a new CBA agreement.

At some point in the months following the scheduled opening match, MLS will be forced to determine a "drop-dead" date for the season to still be played. This date would likely not be until sometime in July or August as MLS will want to wait until the last possible day in an attempt to salvage what little revenue is left for them to earn in 2010. Due to the stadium situation for many MLS clubs, there will be little to no chance for missed games to be made up. Scheduling for teams that essentially rent space in other teams stadiums will not be able to easily rearrange dates.

If the "drop-dead" date comes, then the 2010 MLS season would be canceled and the two sides would continue to negotiate in hopes of having an agreement in place for the 2011 season.

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Obviously MLS and the MLSPU will not want any of these scenarios to play out, but we must be prepared for the possibility of a delayed, shortened or canceled season in 2010. If this occurs, the damage to the league will be nothing short of catastrophic. Without the large dedicated fan bases that allow sports like baseball, American football and even hockey to survive labor stoppages, much of the progress made my MLS over the past 13 season will be lost.